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In this study, we quantify the effect of uncertainties in climate projections on an impact model (IPS) that describes the temperature-dependent swarming and development of Ips typographus. Three forcing climate data sets (ensembles) were used: (1) E-Obs gridded observations, (2) ERA-40 reanalysis data downscaled by eight regional climate models (RCMs) and (3) regional scenarios from one RCM forced
